{
  "prediction": "GM Noël Studer: share of games decided in key theoretical endgame positions will be \"extremely minimal\"",
  "definitions": {
    "tablebase_7": "total pieces including both kings <= 7 (Syzygy range; covers essentially all book endgame theory)",
    "loose_10": "total pieces including both kings <= 10",
    "lichess_endgame": "non-king non-pawn pieces <= 6 (threshold used in the study)"
  },
  "results": {
    "700-899": {
      "games_decided": 1526,
      "median_total_pieces_at_mistake": 24,
      "share_tablebase_7_or_fewer": 0.0347,
      "share_10_or_fewer": 0.0629,
      "share_lichess_endgame": 0.2608,
      "counts": {
        "tb7": 53,
        "tb10": 96,
        "lichessEnd": 398
      }
    },
    "900-1099": {
      "games_decided": 1577,
      "median_total_pieces_at_mistake": 23,
      "share_tablebase_7_or_fewer": 0.0279,
      "share_10_or_fewer": 0.0672,
      "share_lichess_endgame": 0.298,
      "counts": {
        "tb7": 44,
        "tb10": 106,
        "lichessEnd": 470
      }
    },
    "1100-1299": {
      "games_decided": 1639,
      "median_total_pieces_at_mistake": 23,
      "share_tablebase_7_or_fewer": 0.0281,
      "share_10_or_fewer": 0.0757,
      "share_lichess_endgame": 0.3191,
      "counts": {
        "tb7": 46,
        "tb10": 124,
        "lichessEnd": 523
      }
    },
    "1300-1499": {
      "games_decided": 1670,
      "median_total_pieces_at_mistake": 22,
      "share_tablebase_7_or_fewer": 0.0216,
      "share_10_or_fewer": 0.0557,
      "share_lichess_endgame": 0.3335,
      "counts": {
        "tb7": 36,
        "tb10": 93,
        "lichessEnd": 557
      }
    },
    "1500-1799": {
      "games_decided": 1660,
      "median_total_pieces_at_mistake": 22,
      "share_tablebase_7_or_fewer": 0.0337,
      "share_10_or_fewer": 0.0729,
      "share_lichess_endgame": 0.3705,
      "counts": {
        "tb7": 56,
        "tb10": 121,
        "lichessEnd": 615
      }
    },
    "1800-2000": {
      "games_decided": 1690,
      "median_total_pieces_at_mistake": 21,
      "share_tablebase_7_or_fewer": 0.0243,
      "share_10_or_fewer": 0.068,
      "share_lichess_endgame": 0.3675,
      "counts": {
        "tb7": 41,
        "tb10": 115,
        "lichessEnd": 621
      }
    }
  }
}